Predictors of first incidence of alcohol use disorders in the Lundby cohort from 1947-1997

Cecilia Mattisson, Mats Bogren, Vibeke Horstmann, Leif Öjesjö


Mattisson, C., Bogren, M., Horstmann, V., & Öjesjö, L. (2014). Predictors of first incidence of alcohol use disorders in the Lundby cohort from 1947-1997. The International Journal Of Alcohol And Drug Research, 3(4), 257-267. doi:

Objective: Epidemiological evidence indicates an inverse relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and alcohol use disorder (AUD), although there are relatively few recent incidence studies. The present study aimed to assess the incidence of AUD by age, gender and SES and to analyse AUD’s association with mental disorder.

Method: Information about mental disorders, including first incidence cases of AUD, was assessed in the Lundby cohort (n=3,563) by field investigations in 1947, 1957, 1972 and 1997. Incidence calculations were based on 3,372 individuals without prior AUD. For the two genders, age-standardised incidences of AUD for the 25-year periods of 1947-1972 and 1972-1997 were compared. Possible risk factors for incident AUD were analysed by means of Cox regression analyses for the whole sample and for each sex separately.

Results: A total of 233 first incidence AUD cases were detected (198 males, 35 females. Incidence rates, expressed as number of cases per 1000 person years, were highest for working class males at 5.46 cases per 1000 person years for the period 1 of July 1947, to 30 June 1972 and 4.77 for the period 1 of July 1972 to 30 June 1997, respectively. Middle class males showed intermediate incidence rates of 2.73 and 2.65. Self-employed males showed the lowest incidence rates of 2.50 and 1.47. Females generally had much lower incidence, although they showed a non-significant tendency for higher incidence rates in the latter period. A diagnosis of depressive disorders, anxiety disorders and unspecific neurotic states increased the risk for developing first incident AUD.

Conclusion: Working class males had higher annual incidence of alcoholism in both time periods relative to middle class and self-employed males. Mental disorder increased the risk for AUD among both genders.


alcohol use disorder, incidence, socio-economic status (SES)

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