Protocol to study the role of alcohol consumption and alcohol control policy for economic development and health in membership countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) 2000–2023: A modelling study

Jürgen Rehm; Sawitri Assanangkornchai; Gianna Gayle H.  Amul; Pheak  Chhoun; Noran N.  Hairi; Ahmed S. Hassan; Enjeline  Hanafi; Hoang Thi My  Hanh; Kyaw Ko Ko  Htet; Wah Yun  Low; Belinda J.  Murtani; Jiraluck  Nontarak; Sok King  Ong; Kevin  Shield; Kristiana  Siste; Vathsana  Somphet; Vanphanom  Sychareun; Chansathit  Taikeophithoun; Vassana  Thammavongsa; Wen Ting  Tong; Polathep  Vichitkunakorn; Nguyen The  Vinh; Wit  Wichaidith; Andreas Suryo  Wijaya; Siyan  YI; Nurhaliza  Zakariah; Ko Ko  Zaw; Nyi Nyi  Zayar; Hafsah Alwafa  Zulakmal; Bundit  Sornpaisarn

doi:10.7895/ijadr.593

Jürgen Rehm Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5665-0385
Sawitri Assanangkornchai Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2174-3287
Gianna Gayle H. Amul FORUT (Norway), Roald Amundsens veg 1B, 2816 Gjøvik, Norway https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4197-9601
Pheak Chhoun KHANA Centre for Population Health Research, Phnom Penh, Cambodia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6369-0190
Noran N. Hairi Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2692-9016
Ahmed S. Hassan University of Toronto
Enjeline Hanafi Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia – Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1668-3347
Hoang Thi My Hanh Health Strategy and Policy Institute, Vietnam Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3818-6061
Kyaw Ko Ko Htet University of Medicine, Mandalay, Myanmar https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7853-7308
Wah Yun Low Dean's office, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4409-1509
Belinda J. Murtani Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia – Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9467-1467
Jiraluck Nontarak Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, 420/1 Rajvithi road, Rajthevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6737-0829
Sok King Ong PAPRSB Institute of Health Sciences, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Jalan Tungku Link Gadong BE1410, Brunei Darussalam https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8176-8561
Kevin Shield Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1871-8849
Kristiana Siste Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia – Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7435-6243
Vathsana Somphet Faculty of Public Health, University of Health Sciences, Lao PDR https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4255-2754
Vanphanom Sychareun Faculty of Public Health, University of Health Sciences, Lao PDR https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4313-7336
Chansathit Taikeophithoun Faculty of Public Health, University of Health Sciences, Lao PDR https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-982X
Vassana Thammavongsa Faculty of Public Health, University of Health Sciences, Lao PDR https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2539-112X
Wen Ting Tong Department of Primary Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universiti Malaya, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9081-191X
Polathep Vichitkunakorn Centre for Alcohol Studies, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2309-5308
Nguyen The Vinh Health Strategy and Policy Institute, Vietnam Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6908-261X
Wit Wichaidith Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2029-4934
Andreas Suryo Wijaya Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia – Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0987-5065
Siyan YI Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3045-5386
Nurhaliza Zakariah Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3256-3786
Ko Ko Zaw Faculty of Health Science, STI Myanmar University, Yangon, Myanmar https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3670-4627
Nyi Nyi Zayar University of Medicine 2, Yangon, Myanmar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0174-6950
Hafsah Alwafa Zulakmal Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8313-2336
Bundit Sornpaisarn Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8541-1172

Keywords: alcohol drinking, mortality, economic development, life expectancy, policy

Abstract

Introduction: Economic development leads to higher life expectancy, and in most countries is also associated with a higher level of alcohol consumption, as more people start to consume alcohol. As alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for many diseases, this increased consumption of alcohol reduces life expectancy, and in turn slows down economic development. However, alcohol control policies may reduce consumption and mitigate the detrimental effects of alcohol use on life expectancy and the economy. The objectives of this study are to quantify the interrelations between alcohol control policies, levels and patterns of consumption, life expectancy, and economic development for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries between 2000 and 2023.

Methods and analysis: Secondary data analysis of available data will be undertaken, using a cross-sectionally correlated and time-wise autoregressive model for the main conceptual model. In addition, the detrimental effects of alcohol consumption on economic development will be estimated directly and indirectly via its effect on health indicators.

Ethics and Dissemination: As a secondary analysis study of publicly available data, this research does not require approval by a research ethics board. Its results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, webinars, and other forms available to decision-makers.

Strengths and limitations: We selected a region, the ASEAN countries, which experienced high growth in economic growth wealth as measured by increases in per capita Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power Parity since the turn of the century. We were able to use standardized comparable data from international agencies (World Bank, World Health Organization). The study is based on a on a strong conceptual model; i.e., the framework of Angus Deaton, expanded to include the impact of alcohol. We have sufficient data points available to conduct the cross-sectionally correlated and time-wise autoregressive model. However, there may be difficulties in modeling feedback loops within a system in which a change in one variable can eventually lead back to affect the original variable. Finally, there are important potential practical implications for health policy.